ALLOCATION OF BAKERY PRODUCTION CAPACITIES IN REMOTE AREAS OF RUSSIA

Russia faces an urgent problem of economic and local availability of bread in remote northern regions, the Republic of Karelia being a typical example of it. The process of launching new bakery enterprises in such areas could essentially improve the current situation on the market and meet the residential demand. The conducted analysis of the sector has shown that the existing location of bakery facilities in different parts of Karelia is extremely uneven. It leads to a deficit of bread in several cities and districts of the Republic. This problem could be at least partly solved by establishing a well-tuned logistic network between areas with a surplus and those with a deficit. However, it is impossible to compensate the total bread deficit just by internal transportation from surplus areas to deficit ones. Conversely, sustainable solution requires new capacities: the large ones - in densely populated areas in the south, while the modest ones - in the north with a low population density. To solve the problem of optimal allocation of bakery enterprises with various production capacities, the authors used a methodology of the integrated application of economic and mathematical modeling methods and the analysis of investment projects. According to the optimal solution, 28 new bakeries of different capacity should be built and 852 tons of bread (about 7% of the internal deficit) should be transported between areas inside Karelia to substitute for imports. The conducted analysis of the investment project reveals its high economic efficiency: NPV = 72.3 mln rub., IRR = 20%, and a discounted payback period of 7.8 years. This methodology allows enhancing the quality of management decisions, so it can be used not only in the bakery industry, but also in other sectors of Russian economy.

продовольственная безопасность, хлебопекарная промышленность, размещение мощностей, экономико-математическое моделирование, экономическая эффективность, инвестиционные проекты, food security, baking industry, capacity allocation, economic-mathematical modeling, economic efficiency, investment projects

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