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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">agroengineering</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Агроинженерия</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Agricultural Engineering (Moscow)</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2687-1149</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2687-1130</issn><publisher><publisher-name>РГАУ-МСХА</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26897/2687-1149-2025-1-41-52</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">agroengineering-967</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ТЕХНИКА И ТЕХНОЛОГИИ АПК</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>FARM MACHINERY AND TECHNOLOGIES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Машинное обучение при прогнозировании продуктивности севооборотов</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Machine learning in predicting crop rotation productivity</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7765-3451</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Каличкин</surname><given-names>В. К.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kalichkin</surname><given-names>V. K.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Каличкин Владимир Климентьевич, д-р с.-х. наук,руководитель научного направления по земледелиюи агрохимии СФНЦА РАН</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vladimir K. Kalichkin, DSc (Ag), Head of Agriculture and Agrochemistry Research Area, SFSCA RAS</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">vk.kalichkin@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8678-400X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Федоров</surname><given-names>Д. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Fedorov</surname><given-names>D. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Федоров Дмитрий Сергеевич, младший научный сотрудниклаборатории агроклиматических исследований СФНЦА РАН</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Dmitry S. Fedorov, Junior Researcher, Agro-Climatic Research Laboratory, SFSCA RAS</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">dima.fedorov99@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9563-4641</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Максимович</surname><given-names>К. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Maksimovich</surname><given-names>K. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Максимович Кирилл Юрьевич, канд. биол. наук, научный сотрудник лаборатории агроклиматических исследований СФНЦА РАН</p><p>630501, Новосибирская область,р.п. Краснообск, ул. Центральная, 2б</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Kirill Yu. Maksimovich, PhD (Biology), Research Associate, Agro-Climatic Research Laboratory, SFSCA RAS</p><p>630501, Tsentralnaya Str., 2b, Krasnoobsk, Novosibirsk Oblast</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">kiri-maksimovi@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9898-4754</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Риксен</surname><given-names>В. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Riksen</surname><given-names>V. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Риксен Вера Сергеевна, заведующий лабораторией агроклиматических исследований СФНЦА РАН</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vera S. Riksen, Head of Agro-Climatic Research Laboratory, SFSCA RAS</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">riclog@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Сибирский федеральный научный центр агробиотехнологий Российской академии наук</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Siberian Federal Scientific Centre of AgroBioTechnologies of the Russian Academy of Sciences</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>08</day><month>02</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>27</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>41</fpage><lpage>52</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Каличкин В.К., Федоров Д.С., Максимович К.Ю., Риксен В.С., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Каличкин В.К., Федоров Д.С., Максимович К.Ю., Риксен В.С.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Kalichkin V.K., Fedorov D.S., Maksimovich K.Y., Riksen V.S.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://agroengineering.timacad.ru/jour/article/view/967">https://agroengineering.timacad.ru/jour/article/view/967</self-uri><abstract><p>Севооборот способствует поддержанию устойчивых систем земледелия. Применение машинного обучения позволит более эффективно проектировать и прогнозировать продуктивность севооборотов. Традиционные методы обработки данных не отвечают требованиям интеллектуального земледелия. С целью оценки применения машинного обучения выполнено построение моделей прогнозирования продуктивности севооборотов на основе применения 6 алгоритмов: дерево решений (CART); случайный лес (RF); бутстрэп-агрегирование (Bagging); градиентный бустинг (Gradient Boosting); экстремальный градиентный бустинг (Baging XGBoost); искусственная нейронная сеть (ANN). В исследованиях использованы временные ряды данных по продуктивности 9 типов севооборотов на трех уровнях применения техногенных средств, полученные в лесостепи Приобья Новосибирской области Сибирским НИИ земледелия и химизации сельского хозяйства СФНЦА РАН в течение 1999-2019 гг. В качестве дополнительного предиктора в модели был включен показатель атмосферного увлажнения в виде стандартизированного индекса осадков (Standardized    Precipitation Index – SPI), рассчитанный как средний показатель атмосферного увлажнения для мая-июля за ротацию каждого из анализируемых севооборотов. Установили, что модели, описывающие продуктивность севооборотов на основе алгоритмов ANN, Gradient Boosting и XGBoost, характеризовались наиболее высокими прогностическими способностями в зависимости от складывающихся условий атмосферного увлажнения и уровня интенсификации технологии возделывания (R2 = 0,90…0,93). Сравнительный анализ показал, что модель на основе экстремального градиентного бустинга демонстрирует наилучшие показатели с коэффициентом детерминации (R2) 0,93, среднеквадратичной ошибкой (RMSE) 2,34 и средней абсолютной ошибкой (MAE) 1,81. Продемонстрирована возможность применения методов машинного обучения в качестве эффективного инструментария для прогнозирования продуктивности севооборотов.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Crop rotation contributes to maintaining sustainable farming systems. The application of machine learning will enable more efficient design and prediction of crop rotation productivity. Traditional data processing methods do not meet the requirements of intelligent farming. To evaluate the application of machine learning, models for predicting crop rotation productivity were built based on six algorithms: decision tree (CART), random forest (RF), bootstrap aggregating (Bagging), Gradient Boosting, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN). The study used time series data on the productivity of nine types of crop rotations at three levels of technogenic inputs, obtained in the forest-steppe of the Ob region in Novosibirsk Oblast by the Siberian Research Institute of Agriculture and Chemicalization of Agriculture of the SFSCA RAS during 1999-2019. As an additional predictor, the model included an atmospheric moisture indicator in the form of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), calculated as the average atmospheric moisture indicator for May-July over the rotation of each analyzed crop rotation. Models describing crop rotation productivity based on ANN, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost algorithms were characterized by the highest predictive abilities depending on the prevailing atmospheric moisture conditions and the level of cultivation technology intensification (R2 = 0.90…0.93). Comparative analysis showed that the model based on extreme gradient boosting demonstrates the best performance with a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.93, root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.34, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.81. The possibility of applying machine learning methods as an effective tool for predicting crop rotation productivity has been demonstrated.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>севооборот</kwd><kwd>продуктивность севооборотов</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование</kwd><kwd>машинное обучение</kwd><kwd>искусственный интеллект</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>crop rotation</kwd><kwd>crop rotation productivity</kwd><kwd>forecast</kwd><kwd>forecasting</kwd><kwd>machine learning</kwd><kwd>artificial intelligence</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Кирюшин В.И. 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